Predicting the future

Most common question asked of most mortgage professionals is: what is going to happen with rates?

Most mortgage professionals agree that the ability to answer that question would result in most being retired and wealthy by now. Interest rates, specifically mortgage interest rates, are becoming increasingly difficult to predict as the financial markets have changed.

This is what we know: the Federal Reserve and other governing bodies don’t like inflation. If the economic data being generated indicates inflationary pressure then the Fed will lean toward raising rates to protect against that projected inflation. Combine that with world events (like the recent Brexit vote), natural disasters, and even the presidential election and you find yourself doing your best to guess what the future may hold.

As of this writing, the Fed is leaning toward no increase in September, but December is still a possibility. Watch the 10 year treasury as an indicator week to week. It has been a good measuring stick and if it is moving higher, chances are mortgage rates will do the same.

Jayson Stebbins is a 23 year veteran of the mortgage banking industry. He grew up in Morgan Hill and currently lives in Gilroy. He is the local branch manager of Guild Mortgage. You can reach Jayson and his team at (408) 825-0220 or at

Leave your comments