To many Californians, San Benito County
– if they’ve heard of it at all – has a tiny, almost
insignificant role to play in the grand arena of state politics.
And judging strictly by the number of registered voters, they’re
right; San Benito’s voters make up about 0.1 percent of the
statewide electorate.
To many Californians, San Benito County – if they’ve heard of it at all – has a tiny, almost insignificant role to play in the grand arena of state politics. And judging strictly by the number of registered voters, they’re right; San Benito’s voters make up about 0.1 percent of the statewide electorate.
But in one respect, this little county punches above its weight. In practically every statewide election since 1998, the countywide results have mirrored the state’s votes within a percentage point or two. For example, in the special recall election of Oct. 2003, 55 percent of San Benito voters supported ousting then-Governor Gray Davis, while 45 percent opposed it. Statewide, voters split in the same proportion, 55 percent for the recall, 45 percent against. The results have been so consistently similar that the Los Angeles Times recently labeled San Benito a “political bellwether.”
But as bellwethers of statewide politics go, San Benito doesn’t seem a likely candidate. The Free Lance contacted Terry Christensen, a professor of political science at San Jose State University who recently co-authored a book about the recall, and he admitted he’d never heard of the similarity.
“It’s surprising that (the county) so closely reflects the state, partly because of the demographics, partly because it’s still a rural county,” Christensen said.
In particular, the U.S. Census Bureau’s statistics show that 49.7 percent of San Benito residents are of Hispanic or Latino origin, compared to 34.7 percent of California. The county’s median household income of around $56,000 is almost $10,000 higher than the state average. And San Benito’s biggest city is Hollister, while California contains several major urban areas.
Some community members were equally mystified by the close match between San Benito election results and California’s.
“I’m surprised, because San Benito has such small amount of people compared to California,” nurse’s aide Linda Bedolla said.
Others said that although they hadn’t heard about the similarities, they weren’t surprised; most people seemed to think the elections reflected well on San Benito.
“San Benito County, especially Hollister, represents a segment of California,” said Ernesto Coto, a self-employed jeweler. “We’re not just a segregated town out in the boonies.”
Rohena Barra, a homemaker who works part-time in a medical office, offered a similar take on the number.
“These are educated people, so it’s not surprising,” she said.
After some thought, San Jose State’s Christensen offered some possible explanations, particularly regarding why a county and a state with substantially different ethnic demographics might have virtually identical election results.
“In general, Hispanics tend to be underrepresented among registered voters, and then among those registered voters, their turnout tends to be lower,” he said.
Christensen also suggested that the local media might have a significant influence, and he wondered if the county’s voter registration might match the state’s.
An inspection of the secretary of state’s voter registration statistics bore out Christensen’s speculation. San Benito County’s registered voters are 45 percent Democratic, 34 percent Republican and 17 percent undeclared. California’s voters break down in almost exactly the same way: 43 percent Democratic, 34 percent Republican and 19 percent independent.
So what is this bellwether’s political mood? If the San Benito residents interviewed by The Free Lance are a reliable judge, voters are interested without being passionate, and things are looking pretty good for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s re-election bid on Nov. 7.
Most of the community members described themselves politically active – if nothing else, they try to follow the news and vote.
“I usually try to watch what’s going on, but I’m not going out or anything,” Barra said. When asked if she was registered to vote, Barra answered, “Oh absolutely.” She added that although she’s registered as a Republican, she doesn’t hesitate to support a good candidate from either party.
The idea that a person’s registration doesn’t determine his votes came up repeatedly. Mitt French, manager of the San Benito Cattle Company, declined to reveal his party affiliation for that very reason.
“I keep that very private,” he said. “I don’t always vote the way I’m registered.”
Even Realtor Dale Brown, who described himself as a “noisy” Republican, emphasized that he would vote for a Democrat. However, Brown said, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides won’t be getting his vote.
“From what I’ve read – I discount TV ads – his brand of politician isn’t for me,” Brown said. “He doesn’t stick to his guns.”
Most community members had a similar distrust of politicians – particularly Democratic ones – that may work in Schwarzenegger’s favor.
“I used to be more politically active, before people started to get into dirty politics,” said Marty Martinez, a retired Republican. “I think it’s always been around, but it’s surfaced more now.”
These dirty politics, in Martinez’s view, consist of airing politicians’ personal dirty laundry that has nothing to do with real issues. And who does the airing? “Mostly Democrats.”
It seemed like no one had anything bad to say about Schwarzenegger. For example, Gavilan College student Dayne Lamann describes himself as basically apolitical, and he plans to sign up as a Democrat when he gets around to voting, but he had a positive take on the job Schwarzenegger has done so far.
“He’s done a pretty good job, for an actor,” Lamann said.
On the other side of the fence, Coto, a registered Democrat, said he wasn’t particularly fond of Schwarzenegger, but added about Angelides, “I need to know more about her. It’s a she, right?”
Does that mean that the Democrats are in trouble? As a political scientist, Christensen remains skeptical.
“It’s not a valid measure of outcomes, but it makes a good story,” he said. “I wouldn’t try to do a Ph.D. in political science based on it.”
Anthony Ha covers city and county government for the Free Lance. He can be reached at 637-5566 ext. 320.
