Officials agree: we can never be fully prepared
During the 1906 Earthquake, nearly 100 years ago to the day, an
earthquake measuring 7.9 on the Richter scale devastated the Bay
Area. San Francisco was all everyone was talking about, since it
was the largest city on the West Coast, but Hollister’s main street
was rubble after the quake, as was Gilroy’s and what would be
Morgan Hill.
and Melissa Flores
Officials agree: we can never be fully prepared
During the 1906 Earthquake, nearly 100 years ago to the day, an earthquake measuring 7.9 on the Richter scale devastated the Bay Area. San Francisco was all everyone was talking about, since it was the largest city on the West Coast, but Hollister’s main street was rubble after the quake, as was Gilroy’s and what would be Morgan Hill.
In Hollister, a local paper reported the following: “Two of the largest buildings in town folded like a house of cards… Mr. and Mrs. Griffith had been asleep and hastily made their way downstairs into the street, when just as they got out of the building, their outer wall toppled onto their heads. A heavy girder fell upon Mrs. Griffith killing her instantly.”
But earthquakes are not just in the past for local residents. There is a greater-than-ever chance of an earthquake of Loma Prieta-size hitting this area within the next 30 years.
Even more significantly, an earthquake the size of the one that struck San Francisco a century ago will happen here. It’s just a question of when. Scientists with the United States Geological Survey say there is a 62 percent chance that another big quake will occur in the Bay Area within the next 30 years.
There is a 1-in-10 probability that the next major quake to strike this area will fall on the Calaveras fault line, at least of magnitude 6.7, about the same size as the Loma Prieta quake, said Steve Walter, a geologist with the USGS.
The Loma Prieta quake released only 3 percent of the energy released by the Great Quake of 1906, according to scientists.
The Alaska earthquake of 1964 offers some idea of the destruction experienced in a great quake. On March 27, 1964, a great quake of magnitude 9.2 struck Alaska and caused mass landslides and liquefaction. Liquifaction can occur when violent shaking causes seemingly solid ground to mix with underground water layers, turning the earth itself into an unstable pudding of muck. The ground shook, the earth opened and in one case, a quake-generated tsunami wiped the entire downtown district of Crescent City, thousands of miles from the epicenter, off the map.
During the four-minute temblor, roads cracked, buildings fell, and railroad tracks were bent like pipe cleaners. More than a hundred people were killed in Alaska alone, four people in Oregon and 12 in California.
“We were sitting on a little blanket and crevices were opening and closing around us,” remembered a native in a national news story printed at the time.
So have we done to prepare? Even with building structures strengthened and emergency response plans in place, some say local communities are ill prepared for the next big quake.
Buildings
The 1989 earthquake shook houses and streets in Gilroy and Hollister pretty well, while it left Morgan Hill less scathed. Numerous buildings were shaken from their foundations and those left untouched still needed to be modified so that in the event of an even larger quake those buildings do not topple to the ground and injure or kill people. In less than a minute’s time, the 1989 quake did an estimated $100 million damage in San Benito County alone.
Those living in valley areas where there is softer soil are more at risk, since basins amplify the seismic vibrations.
Geologist Walter explained that during the 1906 earthquake parts of San Francisco were destroyed, but 20 miles away in Santa Rosa, the entire city was leveled. There were greater vibrations farther away in the sedimentary basin, which contains clay and sand.
Hollister doesn’t have any unreinforced masonry buildings (URMs) because all the buildings located in town have been retrofitted so they are protected against earthquakes, according to City Engineering Manager Steve Wittry.
Gilroy has more to worry about. There are an estimated 32 buildings downtown that need to be retrofitted so as to comply with current earthquake standards. Downtown Gilroy will not be a good place to be when a major earthquake hits.
However, Gilroy is making strides toward bringing downtown businesses into compliance through a combination of incentives programs and firmer policies. The problem with retrofitting all the buildings is that some of the buildings have shared walls or foundations and others have been subdivided since they were originally built. Gilroy City Council has waived retrofitting requirements, for the last few years, but they are taking a different approach now.
“The council has waived all development fees so there are no building and planning fees for businesses who agree to retrofit their buildings. The city has also appropriated $100,000 for the city to conduct seismic retrofitting studies so that we can analyze some of the buildings we are more concerned with,” said Wendie Rooney, director of community development.
“Currently, we have a mandatory retrofit ordinance. We met with business owners last week and on June 12 we’re bringing in a draft ordinance with the incentive program intact. We’re hoping to have the ordinance adopted by the summer, but with a three-year phase-in, if the changes are not done after the three-year window businesses could face closures or fines.”
Gilroy is currently surveying six other districts to see how they deal with the issue and enforce consequences, Rooney said. The city is also working out how to handle the situation when one business owner wants to retrofit, but the neighboring business doesn’t and the two businesses share a common wall.
“The council loves the sense of history in downtown Gilroy and wants to preserve as much of that as possible, so we’re trying to make sure that some of the business owners keep the older buildings instead of just demolishing and rebuilding. We’re trying to save the character of downtown, but the council is firm that the upgrades are mandatory,” said Rooney.
Emergency personnel
About half of Californians believe government and emergency services will come to their assistance after a major earthquake, according to a poll conducted by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University in March. Half the people surveyed said they view the government as well prepared or somewhat prepared to provide disaster assistance after a significant earthquake.
“I think people’s faith in government is somewhat wishful thinking,” said Phil Trounstine, the director of the Institute. “In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, it’s suprising to find that nearly half of Californians believe that state, local and federal government are prepared for a major disaster.”
Emergency services workers in San Benito and south Santa Clara counties have mixed answers about how prepared local cities are to respond to a major earthquake.
San Benito County has the Office of Emergency Services, which is responsible for orchestrating emergency relief throughout the county. According to sheriff’s Sgt. Anthony Barnes, the county is very prepared for “The Big One.”
Barnes explained that the fire department, sheriff’s department, police and EMTs get together regularly and discuss plans for how to handle a major catastrophe. At least twice per year personnel, including city officials, go through actual drills to better prepare the volunteers to properly respond. The last drill was in October and dealt specifically with earthquakes, Barnes said.
During the drill, topics discussed included how to evacuate students from a school, should the earthquake happen during school hours. The meetings also allow emergency responders to detail exactly who is responsible for what in the wake of a disaster.
“We can’t plan for an earthquake, but we certainly can be prepared,” said Barnes.
But according to the Association of the Bay Area Governments, as many as 1,200 local schools are likely to be damaged if a violent earthquake were to happen.
Morgan Hill is trying its best to prepare, according to Emergency Services Coordinator Ken Foot. The city has an emergency plan that was rewritten last year with the city manager as the head of the line of succession during an emergency, such as a great quake, he said.
Over the past months the city has started training and has conducted one major emergency operation drill, with all the city employees participating in their simulated roles.
“If I can tell the public one thing, it’s be prepared to take care of yourselves and your families for a minimum of 72 hours – that includes food and water. If you have enough supplies to get you through five to seven days, all the better. Additional emergency items include battery-powered flashlights and radios and extra batteries,” said Foot.
He also recommended that people take emergency medical training, since it is not clear how well emergency personnel may be able to respond during a major situation.
“If I could prepare the entire community we’d be that much better off,” said Foot. Morgan Hill has a Community Emergency Response Team, a group of volunteers with national accreditation from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, who can serve as first responders. The program offers courses a couple times a year. During the 20-hour course, discussions include basic preparedness, disaster psychology, and handling of hazardous materials. Through the course citizens can become a resource to the city, according to Foot.
Hollister Fire Chief Bill Garringer has only been in Hollister for five years, so he can’t say how the department responded to the 1989 quake, but he said that currently there is a countywide mass casualty plan. Working with the county Office of Emergency Services the plan puts hospitals on standby during an emergency. It sets up a triage system where patients get distributed according to severity.
In the event that phones are down, the fire department, the city’s first line of defense, has plenty of options. They have radios and cellular phones. If all other measures failed, they would dictate that specific trucks be assigned to specific areas, but he said that even in 1989 telephones didn’t go down.
During Hurricane Katrina, many rescue workers said that communication became an issue as cellular phones, radios and landlines did not always work.
The San Benito County emergency operation center is located at the County Administration Center and according to the plan everyone within the city and county has a role to play. There are different branches that handle the various aspects of the emergency including fire, police and emergency service. Everyone operates together to maximize efficiency.
Gilroy’s Office of Emergency Services is operated out of the fire department. Fire Chief Dale Foster said that the city updated its Emergency Services plan in 2004, but in terms of a great quake doesn’t know how anyone can fully be prepared.
“In terms of mass causalities, I don’t know how anybody can be fully prepared. It depends on the time of day and what buildings are hit the worst,” said Foster.
He said that Gilroy’s plan dictates that the department survey the city and find out where the most damage is and then decide where to best put forth the limited resources.
Beyond that, the city will activate the Emergency Operation Center and then look throughout the region to determine mutual aide, however Foster said that only helps if the surrounding areas aren’t devastated as well.
In terms of triage the emergency medical technicians will look at the severity of the patients. He said that of course they would have to write off certain patients due to limited capacities.
Gilroy is also in the process of starting Community Emergency Response Team training. Foster described it as more of a neighborhood-based approach.
“We’re trying to get folks activated so they can get out there and serve their neighborhoods,” said Foster.
One of the unique things about Gilroy is that the city has its own radio channel, 1610 AM, so that in the event of an emergency the city could put out information to the public about the magnitude of the quake, where to seek medical help and other helpful information. With so many people without resources, it is highly likely that phone lines will overload, but the radio could be an option, Foster said.
“Make no mistake though, there is going to be damage,” said Walter, the geologist with USGS. “There is going to be death and injuries.”
Experts are quick to point out that the government is not going to be able to take care of local residents.
The Department of Homeland Security has said this, said Jan Masuda, a Morgan Hill resident and a CERT member.
“Americans saw it play out with Katrina. You cannot assume that the government will be there to take care of us because we are the government.”
Masuda pointed out that with less than 15 police officers and firefighters on duty in Morgan Hill at any given time, it is impossible for them to respond to 33,000 residents.
“The same is true in Gilroy and Hollister,” said Masuda, who has also volunteered with the American Red Cross and helped during Hurricane Katrina.
Masuda has learned in going out and working in national disasters that it does take a while to get the emergency response teams up and going. Like Foot, she recommends that families be prepared to survive on their own for 72 hours.
Another concern is housing designs, Walter said. Homes need to be built to withstand a magnitude 6.7 earthquake or greater.
“If we live here we need to do things that will keep us safer,” Walter said. “Local, state and federal governments need to take steps, harden water mains, have spare piping on hand. We need material there to go in and make repairs so water can be running.”
Walter emphasized the need to shore up the levees in the Central Valley, a project that he knows has a large price tag. If a major earthquake hit and the levees broke, thousands of homes would be flooded and Southern California would be without much of its fresh water supply.
“FEMA came up with three unimaginable disasters. One was flooding in New Orleans if the levees break. Another was a terrorist attack on a major high rise and the third was a major earthquake in the Bay Area,” Walter said. “Two of the three have happened.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report
Internet Resources
Here are some places to gather more information on the science and history of quakes and disaster preparedness:
“Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country” – a handbook prepared by the United States Geological Survey:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/
The United States Geological Survey puts up “shake maps” of earthquakes of magnitude 3.5 or greater and let’s those who felt the shaking give input on the temblors:
http://quake.usgs.gov/
The Association of Bay Area Governments provides information on preparation and the likely aftermath of quakes in the region:
http://quake.abag.ca.gov/
The Santa Clara Valley Chapter of the American Red Cross
www.santaclaravalley.redcross.org
Monterey-San Benito Chapter of the American Red Cross
www.montereyarc.org/
Training
Community Emergency Response Team training starts in South County cities. The national program certifies residents to be first responders in emergencies within their community and with national disasters.
Morgan Hill CERT classes start Tuesday, April 25. The course includes five Tuesday evening sessions and one Saturday drill session. Those who complete the 20-plus hour training program will be certified CERT members. For more information, contact the Morgan Hill Office of Emergency Services at 408-776-7310.
Gilroy CERT classes will begin in May 4 with Thursday evening courses from 6 to 8:30 p.m. for 10-12 weeks. To register or for more information on upcoming classes, call 408-846-0382.
