The city council recently approved an airport taxiway lease for 55 years and I realized that I’d probably expire long before the lease did. The thought that I was not immortal did not bother me as much as the thought that once I’m gone the world will simply go on without me.
How much future do we have? According to a recent study, earth could continue to host life for at least another 1.75 billion years barring some unforeseen disaster such as an errant asteroid. That led me to write a column about the future so people could read it and laugh at my foolish predictions long after I’m gone.
Let’s put the timeline into perspective. The oldest discovered cave art, thought to have been made by Neanderthals, was made 41,000 years ago and is located in El Castillo, Spain. By coincidence, the age of the cave art divided into the length of earth’s probable future, equals about 41,000 times. Assuming the average rates of genetic and societal change remain the same in the future, we can expect 41,000 times the change that recorded history has already provided. The truth is that the pace of change has picked up, but for simplicity’s sake let’s assume it will stay steady. I selected cave art as the time marker because I believe the rate of change has been driven, primarily, by the developed minds of Homo sapiens.
Take away the human mind and change would still happen – evolutionary change. Evolutionary change leads to other changes, but it is usually slow. In the case of primates, through pre-humans, to humans, it took tens of millions of years. Throw in some brainpower and the speed of change really gets going.
Is it even worth trying to forecast the changes over the next 41,000 years, which is only a tiny fraction of earth’s probable future? No, it’s simply too far away. Let me try a number that I believe I can see, 250 years. So save this column until 2263 and check me out then.
The good news is that in 250 years, I believe advances in genetics, nutrition, and medicine will boost human longevity to 125 years of age. The bad news is that you’ll have to work until you’re 115 to pay for that last 10 years of retirement.
Artificial and transplanted organs and thought-controlled limbs will be common, as will many forms of stem cell therapy and genetic manipulation of the entire human reproductive process. Most people want the best of everything and, given that capability, they will want the “best” offspring they can get – best being their own definition of best. Custom designed T-shirts or custom designed children, many people will not see the difference. I cannot predict the long-term effects of wide spread genetic engineering, there are simply too many variables; it holds both positive possibilities and tremendous dangers.
The human race will have new and better sources of energy, probably fuel cells, and better ways to convert, transport, store, and use energy. Those support technologies are just as important as energy generation. However, the U.S. government will still be arguing about where to store the nuclear waste they have now.
The prediction I am most sure of is this – 250 years into the future human nature will remain, essentially, as it is today. The majority of the human race will overvalue material things and undervalue their brains, emotions, and their souls. I’m so sure I’d bet on it if I thought I’d be around to collect.
