My wife and I have two children in their 40s, four grandchildren and one great-grandchild. Two of the grand children are in their 20s and two are just entering primary school; our great-grandchild is just a toddler and I wonder what the future holds in store for the all of them and their families – what will the world will be like in 35 or 70 years?
I have tried to build a mental picture of a future world whose size and shape reflect its social, economic, and political structure. Considering the forces working on the world’s population, I see the future world as both small and an elongated pear-shape. The concept of a shrinking world due to the improved ability to travel, trade and move ideas ever faster has been with us for a long time. I see those same influences as forcing the world into more of a pear shape where those who are smarter, better educated, and/or more talented are in higher demand at the small top end of the pear and therefore accumulate more rewards – not necessarily wealth – but more rewarding lives. I call this concept the small pear-shaped world, and in many ways it’s with us already.
The shrinking world has expanded the sphere of influence of world’s most talented people while the pear effect has narrowed the top end making talent more valuable. Talented people who used to be viewed as national treasures are now viewed as world treasures. The applicable sports analogy is free agency; in the future talented people will go where they want and will be able to demand more control over how they work in exchange for their services. As national and communication barriers continue to fall, the law of supply and demand with increase the advantage of those in demand.
No matter what actions political bodies, such as the frustrated U.S. Congress, take to try to keep talent and wealth within national boarders they will go where they wish. The best researchers want to work in the best laboratories with the best assistants and they do not care where they are. Everyone has a ‘price’ and many times that price has nothing to do with wealth, it may be social, professional, political, lifestyle or just a feeling of personal wellbeing and appreciation.
The majority of the world’s population will remain at the bottom end of the pear. Yes, their standard of living will improve from better sanitation to better nutrition and even more personalized services, but their other options will be limited. Today, my subscription to an online audio service brings customized selections right to my living room and all it needed from me was an initial explanation of what sort of music I like; it’s nice but those things are small scale. They are less important than your ability to prosper through education and opportunity.
Do those opportunities really exist for the majority of Americans? I think not, our national concept of education is sorely lacking. Failing those accomplishments, too many citizens will end up near the bottom of the pear when the world equalizes – and it will equalize because the shrinking world will force it to do so. At the same time, the pear will elongate and those best capable of influencing the world will migrate to the top that controls things directly by rule or indirectly by influence.
I want a better life for my offspring and my offspring’s offspring like so many generations before me and in my view of the coming small pear-shaped world that means nursing and developing more of their talents.
Marty Richman is a Hollister resident whose column runs Tuesdays.
