Get a realtor before you are ready to buy or sell
This past weekend I was at Tom’s 55th birthday celebration and
someone told me that I have my
”
Whoa, doggies!
”
line all wrong. Here in San Benito County I can see how it could
be construed as an error. According to the American Heritage
Dictionary, a dogie, also dogy, is a stray or motherless calf.
Get a realtor before you are ready to buy or sell
This past weekend I was at Tom’s 55th birthday celebration and someone told me that I have my “Whoa, doggies!” line all wrong. Here in San Benito County I can see how it could be construed as an error. According to the American Heritage Dictionary, a dogie, also dogy, is a stray or motherless calf.
The origin of this word is unknown. In “Western Words” Ramon F. Adams gives one possible etymology. During the 1880s, when a series of harsh winters left large numbers of orphaned calves, the little calves, weaned too early, were unable to digest coarse range grass, and their swollen bellies “very much resembled a batch of sourdough carried in a sack.”
Such a calf was referred to as dough-guts. The term, according to Adams, “has been used ever since throughout cattle land to refer to a pot-gutted orphan calf.” Another possibility is that dogie is an alteration of Spanish dogal, “lariat.” However, I picked this line up about 15 years ago from my friend Christy. She was talking to her dogs, so I think I have it right.
Let’s look at the market quickly, shall we? Inventory is still large. San Benito, for instance, has 451 single family detached homes for sale. That’s far beyond the number of homes we’ve had for sale ever before. Sellers are anxious, buyers are wary.
What are the experts saying about the market? At the recent Legislative Day sponsored by the California Association of Realtors (CAR), Joel Singer, the CAR vice-president, outlined three possible scenarios for the future.
In the most pessimistic scenario, we find weak economic and tighter credit on the horizon with a large decline in sales in 2007 due to a possible recession compounded by the affordability crisis. In the most optimistic scenario we see steady federal funds rate with a moderate sales decrease in 2007 but improving thereafter.
Singer says the most likely scenario is there will be no recession and the federal funds rate will settle at about 5.25%. Sales will modestly decline in 2007 but begin to improve after that. (If you’d like the source document for this information I’ll e-mail it to you.)
Leslie Appleton-Young, the chief economist for CAR, says that the areas where home-building was strong in recent years are the areas hardest hit by the slowdown, as are areas that were popular for second-home properties. The central part of our state has experienced a greater decline than the rest of the state as a whole. And though the volume of sales is off, the median price of a home has inched upward consistently.
Let’s look at what’s happening with that. Why are prices not dropping if inventories are so high? Simple. Most people are not willing to lower their homes to a point where it becomes ridiculous for a buyer NOT to purchase it. They’d rather stick it out and wait for a change.
The one truism is that the market will shift again. We sometimes have difficulty seeing it, but it always happens. Whether conditions are too few homes and too many buyers, or too many homes and too few buyers one needs only to wait awhile and allow the shift to occur.
What we are experiencing now is simply the fallout from too many people buying homes with the expectation that the increase in equity would continue indefinitely. People were encouraged to purchase homes they could not sustain. Whether this was done intentionally through greed or unintentionally by our general lack of belief in the concept of inevitable change is irrelevant. We need to look at what is true today and respond accordingly.
Your best bet is to stay abreast of the changing market, and your optimum way of doing that, short of sitting in front of your computer for several hours each day, is to have a Realtor who is your trusted advisor. (It beats having a friend in the diamond business any day of the week!) If you do not yet have someone you call “my Realtor” you should pick up the phone today and call a local Realtor. Make an appointment with them to discuss your current situation and assess your long-term goals.
I know you’re thinking, “But I’m not buying or selling a home right now. Why do I need a Realtor?” You need a Realtor who will work with you relationally, not transactionally. Let’s imagine you want to retire in 3 years, or move to a larger home in 5 years when the baby is ready for school. You want a Realtor helping you form a plan now to be ready to implement it when you do want a change. In addition, you might speed up or slow down your timeline for retirement or that move as market conditions indicate.
In addition, Realtors are good sources of information for all aspects of home ownership, maintenance and remodel. We have networks. Get to know us, and get us working for you on more than just one deal. You’ll be glad you did.
And be kind to your Realtor.
