Ever since primary election night in June, the conventional
wisdom has been that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is the overwhelming
favorite for re-election. Given his charisma and the strong rebound
in the polls produced by his move toward a more centrist, almost
moderate Democrat agenda, that’s no surprise.
Ever since primary election night in June, the conventional wisdom has been that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is the overwhelming favorite for re-election. Given his charisma and the strong rebound in the polls produced by his move toward a more centrist, almost moderate Democrat agenda, that’s no surprise.
What is surprising is the reality of who has often set the agenda of issues to be discussed during the early months of the fall election season: Democratic challenger Phil Angelides.
On issue after issue, Angelides staked out positions early on, drawing little immediate public attention and few headlines. But each time he did that, Schwarzenegger responded strongly, his responses getting far more attention than the moves which produced them.
Which means Angelides may be the underdog, but so far he’s controlling a lot of the election agenda, even though Schwarzenegger gets far more news coverage. It’s yet to be seen whether that will work to his advantage or whether the positions he’s caused Schwarzenegger to stake out will be permanent.
Take the Mexican border, for one example. From the moment President Bush requested National Guard troops to assist the Border Patrol, Angelides insisted such an assignment would overburden California’s National Guard and render it less effective in responding to natural disasters and other emergencies.
Schwarzenegger’s immediate reaction was to deploy 1,000 guardsmen to the border, but when Bush asked for several hundred more troops a month later, the governor refused. His stated reasons for that refusal read almost like a carbon copy of the original Angelides remarks.
Angelides maintains that was typical Schwarzenegger. “He can’t be trusted,” the challenger said. Added Bill Carrick, a top Angelides campaign strategist, “We will point out that he changes his positions on a dime and has broken a lot of promises and commitments.”
Barely a week after the National Guard incident, Angelides went to San Diego to take an absolutist position against new drilling for oil and natural gas off the California coast.
The Schwarzenegger response? Just hours later, he sent a well-publicized letter to Republican Congressman Richard Pombo of Tracy, chairman of the House Resources Committee, which had recently OK’d a bill that might open more coastal waters to energy exploration.
“(I take) a strong stance against any further oil and gas leasing in the Outer Continental Shelf off the coast of California,” Schwarzenegger wrote.
Angelides could not have said it better.
On education, Angelides ran during the primary on a pledge to “fully fund” public schools, insisting that the minimum funding required by the 1988 Proposition 98 is not enough. “We’re not going to succeed by having our school rank 43rd in the nation,” he said. “I’m not satisfied with just limping along and the legal minimum is just not enough.” New taxes he proposes on the extremely wealthy ($500,00 and up per year) would be earmarked principally to improve schools. But Angelides has never mentioned a specific amount by which he would seek to increase per-student spending.
Responded Schwarzenegger spokesman Matt David, “Angelides is playing typical politics by dodging questions about the specifics of his proposals. In stark contrast, Gov. Schwarzenegger has funded education in California at record levels of over $11,000 per student per year.”
In short, whenever Angelides stakes out a position, Schwarzenegger tries to one-up him. Which has made the rhetoric of the early months of their contest sound more like a Democratic primary race than a general election. For Schwarzenegger’s responses create a debate not about conservative vs. liberal principles, but rather about precisely how liberal California should become.
All this contrasts starkly to the Schwarzenegger rhetoric of just one year ago, when he presented himself as a conservative Republican while pushing special election ballot measures to reduce the political power of labor unions and limit state spending.
This leaves voters to ponder several unknowns, a few of which may be answered in debates between Angelides and the incumbent.
Two of the open questions: Will Angelides be able to maintain the initiative through the fall months and make use of his frequent ability to set the agenda? And, how strongly will Schwarzenegger stick to the positions he now espouses if he’s re-elected and knows he never will have to face the voters again?
Elias is author of the bestselling book “The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It.” His e-mail address is
td*****@ao*.com
