Although San Benito County has managed to get through the warmer
months of 2004 without any reports of West Nile virus in a human,
the infection should hit the county much harder in 2005, according
to state health experts.
The hardest-hit area of the state will probably be Northern
California, according to Ted Toppin of the Mosquito Vector Control
Association of California.
Hollister – Although San Benito County has managed to get through the warmer months of 2004 without any reports of West Nile virus in a human, the infection should hit the county much harder in 2005, according to state health experts.
The hardest-hit area of the state will probably be Northern California, according to Ted Toppin of the Mosquito Vector Control Association of California.
“That’s just the way it’s moved across the country; that’s just the way it works. We’ve followed the models of how it’s worked in the Eastern states. Northern California should be ground zero, and San Benito County will certainly be at risk,” Toppin said.
Historically, areas where West Nile is found will be hit again the next year, and the damage will be worse, according to Stan Husted, a Supervising Public Health Biologist for the state of California Department of Health Services. Husted said once the virus has settled in and made itself at home, it will explode the following year.
“Typically what happens is that the second year in an area is much worse than the previous year,” Husted said. “As far as West Nile activity, we’ll be seeing more (infected) birds, and there may be some human cases.”
This year, five dead birds infected with the mosquito-borne disease have been found in San Benito County, according to state records updated Friday.
The exact reason the virus’s impact is so much more severe in its second year is still a mystery, according to Dr. Curtis Fritz of the state Department of Health Services infectious diseases branch.
“I think it’s probably a combination of quite a number of things. Possibly one of the major factors is that once it hits, there’s sort of a growth curve for physicians to recognize it and look for it in patients exhibiting symptoms,” Fritz said. “Also, it’s still an exotic virus for the U.S. I think the first year it’s still trying to figure out where to settle down. The second year, it has probably eliminated some of the obstacles, like resistant birds. But that’s just personal speculation; I don’t think anyone really knows for sure.”
But San Benito County should have a break in West Nile activity with the coming of the winter months, as mosquitos need warmer climates and standing water to live, according to Fritz.
Although he said he didn’t think anyone could make an estimation of how much harder San Benito County will be hit next year, Dr. Fritz did say that next year will be worse than this one in Northern California and the Central Valley.
State records for West Nile virus in Southern California show how the numbers of infection rise in the years following the virus’s arrival. After the virus’s arrival in Southern California in late 2003, Los Angeles and Riverside Counties each had one reported case of human infection, and neither Orange nor San Bernadino Counties had any. But in 2004, the numbers increased enormously. Los Angeles County had 322 reported cases of human infection, Riverside County had 110, Orange County had 66, and San Bernadino County had 191 so far in 2004, according to state government data.
“We’re really surprised how quickly West Nile spread through the state,” said Husted.
West Nile virus is a mosquito-borne virus that arrived in the United States in 1999 and has spread to 46 states, according to government statistics. There have been 24 fatalities in California to date.
Jessica Quandt covers politics for the Free Lance. Reach her at 831-637-5566 ext. 330 or at [email protected].
