Political watchers say anti-environmentalist Richard Pombo is
‘in trouble’ in November
At first glance, the voting tallies of the 11th Congressional
District race on Wednesday morning seemed
– at least to supporters of Pete McCloskey – were a stark
reminder of just how staunchly conservative voters are in the
Central Valley.
Political watchers say anti-environmentalist Richard Pombo is ‘in trouble’ in November
At first glance, the voting tallies of the 11th Congressional District race on Wednesday morning seemed – at least to supporters of Pete McCloskey – were a stark reminder of just how staunchly conservative voters are in the Central Valley.
It was a resounding affirmation that incumbent Congressman Richard Pombo’s faithful base of support in San Joaquin County isn’t about to let more moderate voters in the Bay Area take away their right-wing hero of 14 years. Though the numbers are still preliminary, Pombo (R-Tracy) has won his party’s nomination with a solid 62.3 percent of the vote. Despite waging a breakneck, hard-fought campaign, McCloskey came in lower than expected at 32 percent, and retired farmer Tom Benigno polled 5.7 percent.
But all is not as it seems. Political experts say a closer look at the numbers reveal problems for Pombo.
“It means a competitive race in November,” said Terry Christensen, political science professor at San Jose State University. A specialist on state and local politics, Christensen has written several books on California politics. Christensen says if one adds up the totals for all the challengers in this race – and there were five of them, three Democrats and two Republicans – Pombo would be flattened. Democrat Jerry McNerney, a wind and solar energy engineer from Pleasanton, won the Democratic vote with nearly 53 percent. Stephen Filson came in second with 28.5 percent and Steve Thomas took about 19 percent. Pombo’s vote total – 29,000 votes – was actually less than that of his two top Democratic opponents combined.
As recently reported, Alameda County election officials will be late in verifying their returns since the county opted to use paper ballots. The county is more Democratic, compared to Contra Costa and San Joaquin counties, also in the 11th district.
Coupled with other factors, such as a traditionally higher voter turnout in November, the outlook for Pombo in keeping his seat of 14 years could be difficult, indeed. Christensen said the voter turnout throughout the state was “extraordinarily low” on Tuesday.
“The turnout could double in November,” Christensen said. “And that usually means more Democrats. It shows Pombo is in more trouble.”
“He’s right,” said A.J. Carrillo, campaign manager for McNerney. “The ones that come out to vote in a primary are the base, the hard-core supporters. And almost 40 percent of Republicans in this district said they don’t want Pombo.”
The Pombo camp has an opposite take on the numbers.
“In a district with a seven-point Republican registration advantage, we like the math,” said Carl Fogliani, Pombo’s campaign manager. “This isn’t a classroom; this is a campaign. If you’re going to be comparing numbers, that (seven-point advantage) is the strongest number around.”
McCloskey, the former attorney and Republican maverick who himself once represented parts of the Bay Area in Congress, fought a hard-hitting campaign against Pombo – the most intense that Pombo has ever faced, say political watchers. McCloskey, a traditional conservative, was relentless in his criticisms of the cowboy-styled Pombo, dredging up the incumbent’s dealings with scandal-riddled lobbyist Jack Abramoff, his quest to sell off national parks and drill for oil in sensitive areas, including the California coastline, and Pombo’s drive to gut the Endangered Species Act – which McCloskey helped to author in 1972. McCloskey even moved 70 miles into the 11th District in order to take on Pombo.
McCloskey supporters say they knew it was going to be a long shot to overtake the entrenched incumbent. Dollars per vote, Pombo had to spend $34.37 for every vote he got. McCloskey spent $21.41 for each vote and McNerney spent only $8.55, according to numbers obtained by the McNerney camp.
According to a report in the San Francisco Chronicle, environmental groups spent $1 million to defeat Pombo in this round.
“Someone said at the beginning of this election that if Pete got 30 percent it would be an earthquake,” said Robert Caughlan, McCloskey’s campaign manager. “Well, he got 33, and he actually won in your area. That’s a tribute to Santa Clara County voters.”
McCloskey took nearly 50 percent of the Republican vote in Santa Clara – Morgan Hill and half of Gilroy – compared to 44.3 percent gleaned by Pombo. The 11th District was almost all conservative since it covered Contra Costa, San Joaquin and only parts of Alameda counties. Several years ago, the Santa Clara portion of the district was added, bringing a more partisan balance to the voter demographics of the district. The district is now split almost evenly between registered Republicans and Democrats.
“More people from Morgan Hill told me Pombo was by far the biggest turkey they’ve ever seen in politics,” Caughlan offered.
“You can spend $10 million and not get the 46 percent,” Fogliani said. “The Congressman’s ability to walk across party lines for his district and California, make coalitions with people like Sen. Diane Feinstein, is what we’re going to be talking about.” But Caughlan has worse news for Pombo.
Traditionally, after a primary, losers pool support for the winner of their party by making an endorsement. Caughlan said the only way McCloskey could consider throwing an endorsement to Pombo is if he agrees to investigate the Mariana Islands scandal involving Abramoff and Congressman Tom DeLay, and if he launches the ethics committee to look into Abramoff’s dealings with political representatives. As Chair of the House Resources Committee, he is the only representative with the power to do that. That’s just for starters.
When McCloskey brought up these sore subjects at the one and only political forum Pombo finally agreed to attend, in Pombo’s hometown of Tracy in May, the incumbent steered clear of the controversies, changed the subject and in general never acknowledged any of it happened.
When asked if there were a chance Congressman Pombo would consider McCloskey’s terms for the endorsement, Fogliani scoffed. He said the Pombo campaign was already lining up key Democratic endorsements, and that they didn’t need the McCloskey endorsement.
“He [McCloskey] is a joke and we’re not going to get involved in that,” Fogliani said. “We’re not going to play into his typical outsider attack campaign.”
It means McCloskey might endorse McNerney.
“I think there is a good chance he will do that,” said Caughlan.
As it stands now, McCloskey is more aligned with McNerney than Pombo in political philosophies, particularly regarding environmental legislation, said McNerney’s campaign manager, Carrillo. Carrillo said that he has been in contact with the McCloskey camp, and that he believes the endorsement is “on the horizon.”
“To win, Pombo has to win back McCloskey supporters,” said Christensen. “You have to assume the McCloskey people are pretty alienated. The Democrats have hope.”
Caughlan said McCloskey spent Wednesday “writing hundreds of thank you letters.”
“Pete’s going to continue to be involved fighting corruption, fighting the ‘Neo-cons,'” Caughlan added. “And if Pombo goes to jail before the general election, that would at least help McNerney.”
In a post-election email McCloskey sent to some supporters and a few news outlets, he summed up his thoughts on what he hopes will happen in November:
“Restoring ethics and honesty to the House is a worthwhile project, and so is saving Northern California and its public lands and parks from Pombo,” McCloskey wrote. “My thought is to regroup and continue the fight on all fronts open to us … Democrats like Charlie Brown and Jerry McNerney are good men, and I see no reason not to help them in every way we can.
“Clearly it is a time to fight back, and party loyalty be damned,” he added.
Fogliani said he and the Pombo camp plan to run a “positive campaign,” and will focus more on Pombo’s accomplishments as a five-term Congressman during the race for the General Election.
“We expect to win a large percentage of them [McCloskey supporters],” Fogliani said. “It’s about building a coalition.”
