Adding 25,000 commuters and seniors are demographics with
pointed political views
If politics is a game, as some say, then it is fair to say the
field of play in San Benito County could change dramatically should
two huge developments get the go-ahead from elected officials.
Adding 25,000 commuters and seniors are demographics with pointed political views
If politics is a game, as some say, then it is fair to say the field of play in San Benito County could change dramatically should two huge developments get the go-ahead from elected officials.
Del Webb and DMB are posed to add thousands of people to the population of San Benito County, including 7,500 new seniors. That could change the political landscape of San Benito County significantly.
San Jose State University Political Science Professor Terry Christensen said that seniors vote and commuters don’t. Specifically, Christensen said that seniors tend to be the largest voting consortium and are somewhat outgoing with their voter turnouts. Seniors are also typically more conservative in their voting.
Additional seniors in an area also make it harder to pass school bonds. Christensen said that older people are less likely to support tax increases because if they have children they are already fully grown and their children are through school.
“Eventually Hollister will have to expand and they’ll have to take that into account,” Christensen said.
Additionally, new homeowners in an area are often more protective of growth than people already in an area, he said. Meaning that people that have lived in an area for a longer period of time are more open to new developments and understand that growth brings more revenues and benefits.
“New arrivals are more objective to growth, that has certainly happened in San Jose. When forces were resistant to growth, it emerged in new parts of the city,” Christensen said.
San Benito County is more Democratic than Republican, but large, sudden shifts in populations can affect political demographics. There are 24,708 registered voters within San Benito County – 11,152 of which are Democrats and 8,403 of which are Republicans, according to San Benito County Elections Supervisor Kim Hawk. The large number of incoming seniors, who traditionally tend to vote more Republican and are more diligent about voting, could offset the Democratic majority.
In contrast, a fair assumption is that a majority of the Rancho San Benito residents will be commuters, said Ray Becker, project manager with DMB. And commuters are less likely to vote in local elections, Christensen said. So while there might be expansion in the general population, there is less involvement in the community, including voting, since the commuters spend all their time outside of their community. The issues that the commuters are probably interested in include traffic, roads and homes.
“Diverse populations tend to be more supportive of the communities they make up,” Becker said. “We’re trying to create a project mix which will create a ethnically, economically, socially diverse mix. We’re looking to create a cradle-to-the-grave community, just like any other small town. Hopefully people will be born here and stay here.”
But how will these new populations vote in areas such as school bonds? Will seniors, with no vested interest in local schools, support school bond issues?
San Benito High School Superintendent Jean Burns Slater said she isn’t worried. As she understands the project, DMB would add as many as 1,500 students to the San Benito High School District, but at the same time, DMB would be building additional schools. She said that she has a major interest in this development, since that is a large population of students; however, she has attended a few of the study sessions and supports the educational plan the development is proposing.
Burns Slater said that she has more concerns with Del Webb. On the bright side, new homes mean new tax dollars. But on the other hand, seniors are less likely to vote the school’s way on bond issues, she said.
“I was in another district that had a ‘Sun City’ and they certainly contributed to the property values in terms of revenue, but also many of the seniors are on fixed incomes. They certainly contribute property taxes and there’s no strain on the resources, but the bond issues make it difficult. I think that whatever we can do to welcome them in and show them the value of the school district needs to be done,” Slater said.
San Benito County Superintendent of Schools Tim Foley said he had similar concerns. Both Del Webb and DMB are big projects that would stand to affect the school district and both would have different ramifications, according to Foley.
“In terms of impact to the school districts, both Aromas and San Juan are fairly small school districts which could be dwarfed by the larger school district created by DMB. It will also require development deals with the existing school districts. Though I must say I was impressed with DMB’s plans to have the school plans submitted with the housing plans so they are not playing catch up,” Foley said.
He said that he is also very interested in what happens with Del Webb. He said that he has heard some people worry about what that many seniors might do to the school district, which is why he would want to cultivate a relationship with the seniors community right from the start and make sure the senior community sees what a bright and vibrant district exists here in San Benito County.
It isn’t a forgone conclusion that seniors are automatically against supporting school districts, Foley said. At the rollout meeting for Del Webb the developers said that at previous locations the seniors have been very supportive of the schools and the district. Foley said that while he hasn’t had an opportunity to do so yet, it is his intention to talk to the superintendent of schools in Placer County to find out about the kind of relationship they have with the Sun City development up there.
