Few people, if forced to choose which of California’s 58
counties is most likely to mirror the rest of the state
politically, would pick San Benito County. Outside of this county,
many can’t even find us on the map.
Few people, if forced to choose which of California’s 58 counties is most likely to mirror the rest of the state politically, would pick San Benito County. Outside of this county, many can’t even find us on the map.
That’s okay. They probably can’t find the No. 2 county, Lake, on the map either.
But the fact is that the results of last week’s election cemented San Benito’s status as California’s undisputed political bellwether county.
Here are some raw numbers:
n In the 2005 special election, the choices of San Benito voters differed by less than 2 percentage points, on average, over the eight ballot measure from the statewide vote.
The biggest difference was on Proposition 76, the spending and funding initiative. Local voter rejection of that measure was 3.8 points greater than the statewide result.
The smallest difference was for Proposition 73, the parental notification of a minor’s pregnancy initiative. Local voters voted only 46.6 percent in favor, versus a statewide vote of 47.3 percent.
It doesn’t end there. This year’s election is only the continuation of a pattern. Just a few of many examples:
n In 2002, Gray Davis beat Bill Simon 47 to 42 percent statewide. In San Benito County, it was 49 to 42 percent.
n In 2003, the statewide vote to recall Gov. Gray Davis was 55 to 45 percent. Ditto in San Benito.
n In the same election, Arnold Schwarzenegger got 48.6 percent of the vote statewide to replace Davis. In San Benito, he got 48.7 percent.
n In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry got 54 percent statewide – and 53 percent here.
On the same ballot, Proposition 63, which provided new tax revenues for mental health services, won statewide with 54 percent of the vote. In San Benito County, it garnered 53 percent.
Also on that ballot, Proposition 66, which would have weakened the state’s Three Strikes law, failed statewide by 53 to 47 percent. The results in San Benito County were exactly the same.
No one seems quite sure why this is the case. We’re small, rural, and with no large cities. But maybe that’s the key. Wedged between Silicon Valley, the Central Coast, and the Central Valley, San Benito County’s location combines many characteristics typical of Californians as a whole.
We have many residents who commute to San Jose, a substantial Hispanic population, and a rural base typical of life in the Central Valley.
Whatever the reason, our newfound status is sure to bring a lot of snoopy pollsters, demographers and political scientists to the area poking the body politic for clues to voter sentiment.
Enjoy the attention.
