When we agreed with state vote tallies, we closely agreed. But
there are exceptions
The question that keeps arising in the backs of the minds of
politicos around the state seems to be whether there is any
validity behind the claim in a Los Angeles Times article published
earlier this year suggesting San Benito County is a bellwether for
the rest of the state.
When we agreed with state vote tallies, we closely agreed. But there are exceptions
The question that keeps arising in the backs of the minds of politicos around the state seems to be whether there is any validity behind the claim in a Los Angeles Times article published earlier this year suggesting San Benito County is a bellwether for the rest of the state.
The answer is clear: It depends on the issue
The evidence shown to support this claim goes back through the last three elections where voters in San Benito County voted nearly identical to the way the rest of the state voted.
This election was similar with a few notable exceptions. Residents here voted for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, 56.8 percent; and the state followed suit at 55.8 percent; likewise for the positions of lieutenant governor, U.S. Senator, and almost every proposition on the ballot.
Terry Christensen, a political science professor at San Jose State University, doesn’t put a lot of stock in the concept of so-called bellwethers, but acknowledged that stranger things have happened.
“Sometimes anomalies are valid patterns. What is interesting about San Benito County is this sense that there are a lot of traditional, rural parts of the county while Hollister is urbanized, with all that comes with it, including commuters. You have a population mix that could be representative of the larger political entity in California,” Christensen said.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s statistics show that 49.7 percent of San Benito residents are of Hispanic or Latino origin, compared to 34.7 percent of California. The county’s median household income of around $56,000 whereas the state average is closer to $46,000. So there are clearly notable exceptions. And San Benito’s biggest city is Hollister, while California contains several major urban areas.
An inspection of the secretary of state’s voter registration statistics point to some very interesting trends. San Benito County’s registered voters are 45 percent Democrat, 34 percent Republican and 17 percent undeclared. California’s voters break down in almost exactly the same way: 43 percent Democratic, 34 percent Republican and 19 percent Independent.
However, during this week’s election 39.6 percent of registered voters in San Benito County cast their ballots, whereas 43.8 percent of registered voters in the state cast ballots.
San Benito County is not the first area to be reflective of a larger trend, Christensen said. While he admitted bellwethers are not his expertise, he said that he had heard of other small towns that were reflective of the whole. Supposedly there is one in New Hampshire that as that place goes, so goes the nation, or the state, Christensen said.
“It could just be a fluke that San Benito happens to go the same way or it could be representative,” Christensen said.
Demographers don’t study areas like San Benito County any more closely than anywhere else, Christensen said.
“Candidates are not paying that much attention. I’m not sure most of them know about these places,” Christensen said. “Did Phil Angelides think about San Benito County? Probably not.”
