A bid for a Western Democratic Convention
In the coming week, the Democratic National Committee will
announce a host city for its 2008 national convention. The choice,
between Denver and New York, should be a no-brainer.
A bid for a Western Democratic Convention
In the coming week, the Democratic National Committee will announce a host city for its 2008 national convention. The choice, between Denver and New York, should be a no-brainer.
The eight states between the Pacific coast and the Great Plains known as the mountain West – Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona – used to be as red as China. Today, it’s a growth market for Democrats.
Five now have Democratic governors, including Colorado in 2006. Recent years have also brought Democratic majorities to legislatures in Montana and Colorado, with new Democratic U.S. senators in those states as well. In 2006, Democratic gains in the House were also made in Arizona and Colorado. New Mexico governor Bill Richardson is on many lists of potential 2008 presidential candidates, and on even more short lists for vice president.
But without a doubt, Colorado is the Democratic star. Holding the 2008 convention there would help consolidate Democratic gains throughout the West.
And New York? A reliably blue state in the bluest region of the country. Only Sen. Hillary Clinton would benefit from having the convention in her home state.
Democratic Party Chair Howard Dean at first said that the choice of host city would depend on “the nitty-gritty – raising money, transportation, hotels” which, he added, are “more important than any political message you might get out of it.”
When that was viewed as a tilt toward New York – and Hillary – he backtracked, saying through a spokesman that the choice would also depend on which city would be perceived as giving the party the biggest advantage.
Give an assist to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, for obliterating the presumption of Hillary’s nomination and making a candidate-neutral venue more likely.
Other political considerations favor Colorado. Republican Sen. Wayne Allard is widely rumored to be set to retire in 2008, and Colorado’s Rep. Mark Udall of the famous conservation family has already announced his intention to contest the seat. Democrats sense an opportunity for another Senate pick-up in the Centennial State.
The West’s dramatically altered Democratic terrain, including the growing importance of Hispanic voters, make Denver an easy choice. Yet as promising as Denver seems, holding their convention there would pose risks for Democrats by shining a light on Western issues – and values. The East Coast Democratic establishment would have to learn to speak a new political language, one that allows for pro gun rights, anti-nuclear waste (most of which comes from the east), and for the most part anti-gay marriage opinions. Denver would challenge Democrats to acknowledge the uneasy political accommodations that have made their recent political success possible.
While a Democratic tilt to Denver would speak to bold electoral ambitions, the Republican choice of St. Paul, Minn. as the site of their 2008 convention suggests retrenchment and caution. Thought of in the last decade as a purple battleground, Minnesota and the upper Midwest now appear to be returning to their Democratic roots, vulnerable ground for a diminishing number of Republican office holders.
Once a rising party star and oft-mentioned vice presidential candidate, Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty barely survived a bruising reelection campaign in 2006, winning a slim victory thanks to a late-campaign verbal gaffe by his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Mike Hatch.
Meanwhile, Democrats took control of the Minnesota House of Representatives with a pick-up of 19 seats, expanded their control of the state Senate and snatched away a Republican congressional seat. In 2008, Minnesota U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman will be on the ballot, but he is on everyone’s list of vulnerable Republican incumbents. Coleman won his seat in 2002 in a squeaker only after then incumbent Democrat Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash shortly before the election. Democrats will go all out to beat him. Will Minnesota native Al Franken be his opponent?
Adding to their woes in 2008, Republicans nationwide will have to defend 21 of 33 Senate seats. In 2006, Democrats won 24 of 33 seats. If they were to repeat the trick in 2008 – admittedly a tall order – they’d have a filibuster proof 63-37 majority. A Denver convention would signal a reinvigorated Democratic party going on the offensive for votes in a newly competitive region. Republicans, meanwhile, will be playing defense.
Unfortunately, and unlike the Democrats, the Republicans electoral map does not suggest a better alternative.
