The small group of Miwok Indians and Santa Clara County
investors trying to build a casino on 200 acres off Highway 156 say
it will still be quite some time before they have the economic
impact report San Benito County residents and elected officials
have been waiting to see for months.
Hollister – The small group of Miwok Indians and Santa Clara County investors trying to build a casino on 200 acres off Highway 156 say it will still be quite some time before they have the economic impact report San Benito County residents and elected officials have been waiting to see for months.
The analyst conducting the study and the group’s project manager said this week a site change from a location of Highway 25 to one near the Hollister airport and the decision to do a more in-depth study than originally planned could stall the release of findings until as late as June.
Originally scheduled for completion and public presentation as early as January, the report has hit some unexpected speed bumps, according to California Valley Miwok Project Manager Gary Ramos, and they’ve slowed the process down significantly.
Dr. Alan Meister, a Los Angeles-based analyst who Game Won investors retained in November to do the impact report, said Wednesday he hadn’t started conducting the study yet and probably wouldn’t be finished with it until any time between May and June.
“There’s been a delay because of the site change, so in doing that they need to update their financials and make sure it’s still a viable investment opportunity for them,” Meister explained. “For the investors, it’s very important for them to do all this, because they wouldn’t want to invest in something that’s going to lose money.”
Councilman Brad Pike, who serves on the city council subcommittee that is exploring the potential benefits of a casino, said he’s willing to wait to get the facts.
“Here is the bottom line for me: there is no urgency yet, and I would rather get the facts laid out,” he said. “I don’t think this is something we should really rush into. It is a huge issue.”
Another bump in the road has been the investors’ decision to go with a more comprehensive impact study than the average economic impact report, according to Ramos.
“We’ve tried to plug in some numbers, but because we’ve gone from a standard economic report to a net one, that added four to six weeks to those numbers,” he said.
The difference between a standard impact report and the net report Game Won has commissioned is huge, according to Meister.
“It depends on what the questions are that you’re trying to ask and answer. In this particular situation I’ve been asked to look at what’s the economic impact, but also taking into account that there might be a decrease in some services or purchases in the area,” he said.
Essentially, he explained, a net report looks at not only how much money and how many jobs could be brought into a community if a casino came in, but also how much money and how many jobs could be lost in other non-casino sectors as a result. So this study will look at the potential of 2,000 jobs Ramos has estimated the casino will bring, how much money the people in those jobs will spend in the outside community after work, and how much business will be lost by dining and entertainment venues in Hollister that can’t compete with the destination resort/casino. Once started, which Meister said would be “as soon as possible,” a net report typically takes one-two months to complete.
“It’s a much more difficult type of study to do when you’re trying to look at what are possible decreases in other types of industries as a result of gaming,” said Meister.
To conduct the net study, Meister said, he’ll be depending on the investors’ knowledge of the community and surveys he said they have already administered locally. The surveys asked residents questions about whether they would patronize a casino in town, how much money they think they’d spend there, and what part of their personal budgets they’d probably siphon the money off from, he said.
This is a concept that doesn’t sit well with anti-casino activists.
“I think it’s kind of interesting that the person who’s doing the economic impact report is relying on a group of investors that really has no knowledge of the community. You know, they say they’re from here, but they’re all from north of here. It’s kind of a garbage in, garbage out thing. I just don’t understand where they got their information,” said Steve Merrell, chairman of Casinos Represent A Poor Solution.
Ramos couldn’t be reached Wednesday to comment on the investors’ information-gathering methods, but Meister argued that the investors have a stake in producing an accurate report.
“For the investors, it’s very important for them to do all this, because they wouldn’t want to invest in something that’s going to lose money,” Meister said. “So it’s not in their best interest to cut corners and try to make it look good if they’re going to lose money.”
CRAPS and other local casino opposition have also said they doubt the impartiality of a study conducted by anyone being paid by the investors. Meister said specializes in Indian gaming studies and has conducted them on behalf of groups on both sides of the issue.
Merrell said he still had his doubts.
“The fact of the matter is that all of the information Dr. Meister is putting into his study has been handed to him by people with a vested interest in making sure this comes out looking the way they want it to,” he said.
Still, Meister insisted the study would be impartial.
“We cover all different types of clients on both sides of the fence, and part of our credibility is based on the fact that we come up with unbiased, accurate answers no matter what we’re looking at. That’s the only way we get retained on other projects,” he said. “My reputation depends on me doing a fair and accurate job. I’m doing it the right way and when it comes out it is what it is.”
Jessica Quandt covers politics for the Free Lance. Reach her at 831-637-5566 ext. 330 or at
jq*****@fr***********.com
.
