In last week’s column we discussed the alarming situation of the
declining birthrates in the countries of Europe. To summarize, the
combined birthrates of the countries in the European Union is 1.42,
a number significantly below the 2.1 births per woman of
childbearing age needed to sustain the population of a country or
group.
In last week’s column we discussed the alarming situation of the declining birthrates in the countries of Europe. To summarize, the combined birthrates of the countries in the European Union is 1.42, a number significantly below the 2.1 births per woman of childbearing age needed to sustain the population of a country or group.
The implications for the future, considering this demographic, is mind-boggling.
This week we will expand the discussion to the industrialized nations of the world, and then finish with a reflection.
The birthrate of the U.S., although declining is at 2.1, a figure that exactly sustains the existing population number.
The birthrate figures in the U.S. are not homogenous, however. There is wide variation by state and by ethnic groupings.
States with the highest fertility rates are: Utah, Arizona, Texas, Idaho and Alaska. All five of these states were won by George Bush in 2004, and by large majorities.
States with the lowest fertility rate are: Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. All five of these states were won by John Kerry, also by large majorities.
Red states evidently have higher birth rates than blue states.
The U.S. still has in its power the capacity to sustain a replacement level birthrate into the future and even to grow as a country.
The U.S. has just crossed the 300 million population milestone. Projections point to an additional 100 million Americans by 2050.
But the matter is not settled. The birthrate in the blue states is below the level of a stable population, while the red states have a rate that continues to show an overall population growth.
The highly industrialized nation of Japan, has a birthrate well below replacement level, at 1.25.
The population in Japan peaked in 2005 and has now started a precipitous decline. Estimates are that Japan’s population will fall from the present 127 million to 104 million by 2050.
Our neighbor Canada? Similar to Europe in so many respects, Canada is similar to Europe in birthrate, also at 1.48 babies per woman during her childbearing years.
Overall it is a story of industrialized nations failing to replace their native populations.
Does it matter?
Tony Blair reflected in 2003 on the future of Britain as follows: “As Britain knows, all predominant power seems for a time invincible but, in fact, it is transient. The question is: What do you leave behind?”
What indeed?
Britain has a large and growing immigrant community. What will happen to the country that gave us the concepts of individual freedom and self-determination when Britons are a dwindling minority due to the refusal of Britons to reproduce in sustainable numbers?
Extrapolating so as to find meaning for the future from the data of the declining birthrate in the West is indeed a daunting task.
I had hoped to be prepared with my own reflections on this epochal development. However, after much reflection I have concluded that comments at this time, in this column, would be trivial, compared to the magnitude of what is occurring around us.
Shedding some light upon, much less actually understanding, what to all indications is the gathering decline of the West is, I fear, rather more the work of sages and mystics than it is of columnists.
And to actually convey to fellow human beings the reality of such events will require soaring, Churchillian prose.
The human psyche has a way of internalizing grand historical upheaveals and discontinuities. But it involves years and decades of removal from the actual events to approach finality in such matters.
Edward Gibbon did not write “History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” until 1776, some 15 centuries after the events actually occurred.
In fact, Gibbon would be a fine source of guidance concerning the apparent decline of the West, both for his historical insight and for his magnificient prose in describing those events.
Quoted below, is an example of the soaring prose that must ultimately appear, to aid future citizens in understanding the meaning of cataclysmic historical events, such as the decline of Rome, or it would seem, the decline of the West.
From chapter 29 of Gibbon’s “Decline and Fall”:
“A people who still remembered that their ancestors had been the masters of the world would have applauded, with conscious pride, the representation of ancient freedom, if they had not long since been accustomed to prefer the solid assurance of bread to the unsubstantial visions of liberty and greatness.”
Al Kelsch is a Hollister resident who writes a weekly column for the Free Lance. Contact him at [email protected].
