Marty: The J-word election

No doubt, you’re going to be hearing about jobs
– the
”
J
”
word
– often during the upcoming election campaigns. If merely using
a magic word could solve a problem, I’d run around yelling
”
skinny
”
all the time and I’d weight 150 pounds instead of twice that.
The American electorate too often confuses talk and action
– politicians regularly take advantage of that fact.
No doubt, you’re going to be hearing about jobs – the “J” word – often during the upcoming election campaigns. If merely using a magic word could solve a problem, I’d run around yelling “skinny” all the time and I’d weight 150 pounds instead of twice that. The American electorate too often confuses talk and action – politicians regularly take advantage of that fact.

Sorry, there is no silver bullet. Advancing economically is tough going; you have to lay the foundation and build on it which means you have to have a long-term plan. I know the words “long-term” are X-rated in politics, but bear with me. I hate to use that hackneyed phrase, but you must to have a vision and take all the steps necessary to make the vision come true.

I go to many local government meetings, but I rarely hear any detailed discussion or analysis of the city or county employment situation. Oh sure, everyone talks about the unemployment rate, but that number is nothing but the end result of all the factors working in a complex process – it has little to do with understanding the whys and wherefores.

Ten years is a lifetime in the economic cycle of small counties, cities and their residents, we cannot afford to wait every decade for the U.S. Census to tell us where we are. We should be taking our economic pulse on a regular basis.

Google “Unemployment rate San Benito County” and you’ll get an interactive chart with lots of options for the national, state and county unemployment data from 1990 to 2010.

Displaying SBC and California together, you’ll immediately notice two things. First, our unemployment rate has been consistently higher than the state’s rate for 20 years and while some seasonal swings exist in the state data, the seasonal swings in the county rate are enormous by comparison; that’s because agriculture is a big business and that is seasonal. However, our seasonal swings have been dropping dramatically – as have the swings in the county’s labor force. In 1991, the minimum to maximum unemployment rate swing was 11.9 percent. It went under 10 percent in 1995 and under 5 percent in 2000, which means we have a more permanent workforce and migrant workers who follow the crops are less of a factor.

A look at the labor force data confirms these observations. In the 1990s annual swings of 4,000 to 5,000 in the size of the labor force were common, bit in 2008 the swing was less than 1,000 and in 2009 less than 2,000. 

The upshot is that the unemployed do not move on as they used to – they stay – which means that we have retool our jobs strategy for find year-round work for this permanent workforce.

We should find out just what percentage of our labor force commutes, where they work and their family incomes. Those who work outside the county are bringing money in – we should be working harder to give them somewhere to spend it. We simply cannot afford to be behind the power curve on this when the recovery comes.

Mostly I hear anecdotal data – a new business came, and an old business went. That’s not a strategy with measurable long-term goals; it’s a weather report. If it’s raining right now I do not need a report. I can look outside and see what’s going on.

So ask the candidates: “What’s you long-term strategy to help us prosper economically?” When they answer, be sure to check and see the answer makes sense or if they are merely holding their finger up to determine which way the wind is blowing.  

Marty Richman is a Hollister resident.