Hollister
– In recent years, political pundits have started to sit up and
take notice of small, seemingly insignificant San Benito County
because in practically every statewide race since 1998, the
countywide results have mirrored the state vote within a percentage
point or two, and early election results i
ndicate that held true in this week’s election.
Hollister – In recent years, political pundits have started to sit up and take notice of small, seemingly insignificant San Benito County because in practically every statewide race since 1998, the countywide results have mirrored the state vote within a percentage point or two, and early election results indicate that held true in this week’s election.
Statewide, incumbent Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger won 56 percent of the vote, while Democratic challenger Phil Angelides received 39 percent. With 40 percent of local ballots counted, the breakdown is essentially the same: 57 percent for Schwarzenegger and 38 percent for Angelides. John Garamendi, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, received 49 percent of the statewide vote, while Republican Tom McClintock received 45 percent. Again, San Benito County’s results were similar: 48 percent for Garamendi and 46 percent for McClintock.
“It proves that small communities have the same concerns as bigger ones,” said Pat Loe, chair of the San Benito County Board of Supervisors.
Down the list of statewide candidates, San Benito County’s returns match up with the state’s, and the county also passed the same propositions. In neighboring Santa Clara County, on the other hand, Schwarzenegger received 53 percent of the vote to Angelides’ 43 percent. Santa Clara voters also supported Propositions 86 and 87, while the state’s (and San Benito’s) did not.
County Superintendent of Schools Tim Foley cautioned that it might be premature to talk about the county’s election results.
“Until we get the final numbers, we don’t know how closely it matched,” Foley said. “It seems to follow the trend though.”
The phenomenon has become well-known enough that when the Free Lance contacted local political consultant Robert Rivas, he immediately commented, “Ah, the bellwether.”
Rivas, who is on the Free Lance’s editorial board, said he couldn’t offer a definitive explanation about why San Benito matches the state’s elections so closely, but he did think the county’s location might have a role.
“It’s not considered the central coast or the valley,” he said. “It’s right in the middle and that reflects in its politics.”
This year, there’s one exception to the congruence between county and state: In the race for secretary of state, Republican Bruce McPherson lost to Democrat Debra Bowen, 45 percent to 49 percent. In San Benito County, however, McPherson took 55 percent of the vote, while Bowen received 40 percent.
Loe said those results make sense, because McPherson is from Santa Cruz County.
“He’s known locally,” Loe said.
Demographically, San Benito County has some big differences with California. The U.S. Census Bureau’s statistics show that 49.7 percent of San Benito residents are of Hispanic or Latino origin, compared to 34.7 percent of California. The county’s median household income of around $56,000 is almost $10,000 higher than the state average. And San Benito’s biggest city is Hollister, while California contains several major urban areas.
In one respect, though, the state’s statistics do match San Benito’s: voter registration. San Benito County’s registered voters are 45 percent Democratic, 34 percent Republican and 17 percent undeclared. California’s voters break down similarly: 43 percent democratic, 34 percent Republican and 19 percent independent.
This year, California’s Democrats took every statewide position but the gubernatorial office. Why, of all the Republicans, was Schwarzenegger able to claim victory? For one thing, San Benito residents interviewed before the election by the Free Lance seemed to have a negative impression of Angelides, if they knew who he was at all.
Two San Benito voters might offer another clue: Steve Breneman, who used to own a business in downtown Hollister, said that he’s a Democrat, but he supported the Republican gubernatorial candidate, which Breneman said is “definitely unusual.”
“From my point of view, (Schwarzenegger) does a lot less mudslinging,” Breneman said. “He did a majority of things he said he was going to do. And the things he didn’t do, I hope he will accomplish in the next term.”
Local architect David Huboi, who led the recent Yes-on-Measure-R campaign, said he is also a Democrat who voted for Schwarzenegger.
“I think he’s done a pretty decent job, which surprises me,” Huboi said. “When he was elected, I thought, ‘Oh my gosh, he has no experience.'”
He added, “When I look at candidates, I judge not only on the issues, but on how good a leader they are.”
Anthony Ha covers local government for the Free Lance. Reach him at 831-637-5566 ext. 330 or ah*@fr***********.com.
