The county has gone for Democratic presidential hopefuls in the
past, but local Republicans are hoping to ride Schwarzenegger’s
success
Hollister – If local voters follow the trend in recent elections, President Bush doesn’t stand a chance at out-gaining Sen. John Kerry for votes in San Benito County or California.
But that hasn’t stopped locals from both the Republican or Democratic parties from recruiting new members and vigorously promoting their stances. Meanwhile, the number of registered voters who decline to signify a party affiliation has climbed since 2000, signaling San Benito might not be the shoe-in it once was for liberal candidates seeking the presidency.
Like many issues debated on the campaign trail, the two local parties also disagree on whether Bush has a chance of out-doing Kerry here.
On Friday, a day after the first of three debates between the presidential candidates, Democratic Central Committee volunteer Louise Ledesma said Kerry’s a lock in San Benito. While Republican Central Committee volunteer Sally Bettencourt said she’s skeptical of all the polls and, with a high turnout, believes Bush still has a chance locally and across the state.
Republicans hope there’s momentum leftover from the state’s recall election, in which Arnold Schwarzenegger trumped Gray Davis to become governor, Bettencourt said.
“We’ve been registering Republicans. They’ve been enthusiastic. The energy seems to be magnifying closer to the election,” Bettencourt said.
Although the Democratic Party has a stronghold in San Benito County – 11,070 registered compared with 8,516 Republicans – Ledesma said the committee has targeted registered Democrats who failed to vote in the March primary.
“People know we can’t be complacent and just take California for granted,” she said. “We have to look at the short term for this election. That’s our No. 1 priority, to take back Congress – besides electing Kerry.”
The number of registered voters for both parties has actually declined locally since the 2000 election – from 26,534 to 24,447. Though Registrar John Hodges attributed that change to the elections office recently canvassing the list to remove inactive voters who, for instance, had moved from the county.
The Democratic following, which has propelled its party’s comfortable victories locally during the past few presidential elections, actually dipped slightly more than the number of Republicans registering. There has been a 6.8 percent drop in registered Democrats compared with a 5.7 percent decline for Republicans.
But the most telling number, Hodges believes, is a gradual climb in the number of registered voters who don’t claim a party.
That number has increased from 3,480 in 2000 to 3,808 today. It’s the same type of voter who analysts and both campaigns say will determine this year’s race – but most likely only in the closest battleground states.
For this year’s election, though, Hodges doesn’t see the local Democratic dominance shifting just yet.
“I don’t see this county being close in whether it’s Bush or Kerry,” Hodges said, referring to his belief Kerry will get more votes here.
Even in 2000, when Bush eked out more electoral votes than Al Gore to win the presidency, the Democratic candidate commanded the local polls.
Gore gained 9,131 votes compared with Bush’s 7,015 – a 54 percent to 42 percent margin. The 1996 race wasn’t much closer, with former President Clinton gaining 51 percent to 39 percent of the vote for Bob Dole. In 1992, Clinton outshined Bush’s father by a margin of 42 percent to 32 percent – that year Ross Perot ran as an independent and gained 25 percent of the local vote.
Those numbers reflect the political climate statewide, too, at least in 2004.
“California is generally considered a safe state in the presidential election,” said Jessica Schaffer, Democratic Congressman Sam Farr’s press secretary.
Farr was flying back to the area from Washington, D.C., Friday and couldn’t comment. But Schaffer said he was pleased with the debate Thursday night.
Foreign policy was the theme for the first one. Bush focused on Kerry’s messages about the Iraq war being inconsistent. Kerry focused on Bush making poor choices in his decision to invade Saddam Hussein’s troops.
“Sam (Farr) was very energized by it,” she said. “Kerry did a good job. More than that, it was an actual debate about issues.”
Farr’s opponent in the 17th District, Republican Mark Risley, didn’t like either candidates’ performances.
“And I was disappointed in that neither candidate intellectually engaged in a dialogue to lay down a specific plan on how this engagement in Iraq will conclude,” Risley said, but through his campaign manager, Veronica Shippy.
Hollister resident Rosalie Hutchinson thought the debate was confusing, she said Friday as she walked out of Hallmark downtown. She isn’t a fan of Bush at all, though she called Kerry “iffy” as a candidate, too.
“I’ll probably vote for Kerry because I don’t like Bush,” she said.
Paul Ryan isn’t from Hollister, but that didn’t stop him from showing his support for Bush while sitting outside Elegant Touch restaurant Friday. His dog Muffin sat on his lap with a “Bush-Cheney 2004” sticker clinging to its fur coat.
He wasn’t overly excited about Bush’s performance in the debate.
“He did all right, but he could have done better,” said Ryan, a Lancaster resident.
Kollin Kosmicki covers politics for the Free Lance. Reach him at 637-5566, ext. 331 or
kk*******@fr***********.com
.
