By Marty Richman
Here’s a question for you,
”
How much are you willing to bet on potential?
”
Your answer will probably determine how you are going to react
to DMB Associates’ proposed 6,800-unit county development, El
Rancho San Benito. The project has potential, but it’s a bet, far
from a sure thing. However, there may be no sure things in the
world of development.
Here’s a question for you, “How much are you willing to bet on potential?” Your answer will probably determine how you are going to react to DMB Associates’ proposed 6,800-unit county development, El Rancho San Benito. The project has potential, but it’s a bet, far from a sure thing. However, there may be no sure things in the world of development.
To picture the final product you have to imagine a planned community of more than 25,000 residents plunked down along the Highway 25 corridor. Does that make your head spin? Naturally, a project of that size doesn’t happen overnight. It could take 10 or 20 years depending on the health of the economy.
DMB’s sales operation is polished and professional, but they occasionally slip up. I still remember their silly “non-survey-survey” – “How’d you like to have a couple of million of dollars for your favorite county project?” Just curious, did anyone vote no?
Here’s the bucket of cold water. Under normal circumstances, straight residential development does not pay for itself – period. If it did, everyone would develop their way to prosperity. Thankfully, this project is not a straight residential development.
In one respect DMB is like all developers; they overestimate the economic benefits likely to come from the construction and mere existence of the project and underestimate the county’s capital and ongoing costs. I call it “Rosy Scenario.”
All economic projections are based on assumptions; an assumption is just a fancy word for a guess. Forecasts are usually biased in favor of whoever paid for them. Now that may shock you if you come from Mars, but not if you’re from around here.
The good news is that DMB has addressed many community concerns and their incentives are impressive, especially designating 1,360-units (20 percent of the project) as “affordable housing.” The bad news is that discussion of the cost of education and its funding are conspicuously absent in the impact analysis; that’s a very big hole in the plan that MUST be fixed!
The master design consists of multiple communities, or neighborhoods, that will have individual personalities. Unit types are likely to include townhouses, condominiums, and apartments as well as single-family, stand-alone homes. Amenities will vary by neighborhood and association fees will track along – that one is a sure bet. Critically, the design includes a 50-acre corporate campus, more on that later.
The development combined with the current highway system would be a nightmare. If the traffic problems are not solved it’s a deal breaker for me. Imagine a few thousand more cars on Highway 25 trying to get on or off Highway 101 every day during the great migration. DMB has recognized this as a critical issue and has proposed constructing a parallel connection to Highway 101 directly through the project site. Traffic between the development and Hollister will also increase significantly as people come to do county business – as will the line at DMV. (Drat!) One extra benefit is that the parking spaces provided by the Briggs Building may finally be justified (inside joke)! Traffic is something to keep an eye on and worry about.
The project’s most significant benefit is its potential for attracting industrial and technical employers to the corporate campus. Not all jobs are created equal; good jobs are still the key to real economic health, I cannot overemphasize that point. Industrial and technical sector jobs usually include better pay, benefits, and opportunities than other parts of the economy. They provide the basic value-added engine that supports all the retail, service and public sector employment. Those good jobs are the biggest potential payoff for this project.
Will those jobs happen? I don’t know. The important thing is that this project will give it a chance. If it moves ahead, it’s important to ensure county residents get the lion’s share of those benefits because their taxes will be funding the bet.
To sum up, the proposed El Rancho San Benito development deserves a good hard look by the citizens and government of San Benito County. It has significant potential, but we’ll have to front some money; it will not pay for itself – nothing ever does.
The primary concerns are water availability, education expenses, and traffic. If the county chooses to go forward it will be critical to address those areas and turn the developer’s proposals into firm agreements so we get what we need.
Marty Richman is a Hollister resident. He can be reached at [email protected].
