We continue to read reports of episodes from around the world of
the so-called
”
bird flu.
”
Warnings from various organizations are occurring with increased
regularity.
We continue to read reports of episodes from around the world of the so-called “bird flu.” Warnings from various organizations are occurring with increased regularity.
In an early warning in November of 2004 Dr. Shigeru Omi, head of the Asia Pacific section of the WHO, shocked the world with a warning that bird flu could cause 100 million deaths! H5N1, the strain of bird flu that is causing such heightened concern has killed less that 200 people worldwide.
Should we take the warnings of a influenza pandemic seriously? In a word, yes.
The worldwide influenza pandemic of 1918 recedes further and further into memory as survivors and family members who were alive at the time pass on. However, we proceed at our own risk if the lessons of 1918 are not fully assimilated into our collective consciousness and applied in advance to the possibility of H5N1 transmuting into a version that can be passed between humans.
The estimates of the worldwide deaths caused by the 1918 influenza epidemic start at 21 million, a commonly reported number. Epidemiologists who have carefully studied the historical record, however, place it at 50 million as a most likely number and admit it may have been as high as 100 million in total.
A definitive history of this dramatic event is, “The Great Influenza,” written by John M. Barry. A sobering, yet riveting, read. Some of the incidents recorded here are taken from that chronicle.
This flu was a most virulent strain, and like the current flu that is being so closely watched, mutated from an avian flu variety. “in Cape Town, South Africa, Charles Lewis boarded a streetcar for a three-mile trip home when the conductor collapsed, dead. In the next three miles, six people aboard the streetcar died, including the driver.” This incident is recorded in “The Plague of the Spanish Lady: The Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919.” And from the Journal of the American Medical Association, “One robust person showed the first symptom at 4pm and died by 10am. The progress of the disease itself was like an explosion. The men start with what appears to be an ordinary attack of LaGrippe or Influenza, and when brought to the Hosp. they very rapidly develop the most vicious type of pneumonia that has ever been seen. Two hours after admission they have the Mahogany spots over the cheek bones, and a few hours later you can begin to see the Cyanosis extending from their ears and spreading all over the face. . .”
No area of the world was exempt from the onslaught. Areas hit with particular intensity were Philadelphia in the U.S., South Africa, Eastern Canada, and the Indian subcontinent. No country, or community, or even family was spared.
The numbers were truly staggering. From “The Great Influenza,” “Given the world’s population in 1918 of approximately 1.8 billion, the upper estimate would mean that in two years – and with most of the deaths coming in a horrendous 12 weeks in the fall of 1918 – in excess of 5 percent of the people in the world died.” “Today’s world population is 6.3 billion. If one uses the lowest estimate of deaths – the 21 million figure – that means a comparable figure today would be 73 million dead. The higher estimate translates into between 175 and 250 million dead.”
My paternal grandfather, John William Kelsch, died on Nov. 18, 1918 at the age of 37 leaving my grandmother and five children. My father was 12 years old at the time. As the eldest of the family, he was forced to take over the support of the family. The oral description of his passing has been recorded in our family. An aunt of mine described how, as he lay dying, the children were praying around the bed, shivering from the windows that were wide open, in a futile attempt at slowing the deadly disease.
Does your family have a story concerning the 1918 flu epidemic? Much of the story of this most devastating plague is passed on within families. We would love to hear stories of how the great influenza affected your family and your community.
I would also like to thank the writers of the many e-mails we received on the subject of Intelligent Design. We will return to the subject in future columns.
Al Kelsch lives in Hollister with his wife Judy. They both enjoy running and singing. E-mail him at [email protected].
