The presidential horse race has begun earlier than years past in
California, and local pundits are not shying away from sizing up
the political landscape.
More than a year before the presidential election, South County political observers are wondering if a former First Lady already has California’s Democratic primary sewn up. Some are asking if a television actor will return the GOP to its political roots and give Democrats a run for their money in 2008. And most are saying it’s too early to start asking such questions.
The presidential horse race has begun earlier than years past in California, and local pundits are not shying away from sizing up the political landscape. Poll numbers and swelling campaign war chests help anoint front-runners, but most political observers in South County say it’s too early to predict who will represent either party come election day.
“I don’t think that anyone is unstoppable or any candidate is such a juggernaut that everyone else should just step out of the way,” said Larry Carr, a Morgan Hill councilman and member of the South County Democratic Club. “I don’t think anyone has it sewn up.”
The latest poll numbers, however, show that Democrats in California are leaning heavily toward New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has a 30 percent lead over her next nearest challenger, Illinois Senator Barack Obama. On the Republican side of the aisle, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has emerged as a front-runner in California with 35 percent support among likely GOP voters, according to the latest Field Poll. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has support among 14 percent of voters, while former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who starred in the television series “Law and Order,” has managed to win 13 percent support even though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy.
“Many Republicans are hoping that Fred Thompson will emerge as the next Ronald Reagan, though Mitt Romney is also a formidable and well-organized candidate,” said Elizabeth Sanford, a Republican political consultant who lives in Gilroy. “I think it could go any way. There is no clear front-runner.”
And while Republicans believe Clinton will clinch the nomination, Sanford said, they split on whether or not that bodes well for their chances of retaining the White House.
“I think it’s imminent that Clinton will get the nomination (based) on polling numbers,” Sanford said. “Some don’t mind her being the nominee because they feel she’s so out of step with America, but some fear her becoming the nominee because they think the Clinton campaign machine is unstoppable.”
While Clinton leads the polls, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson would be a more formidable opponent for Republicans on the national stage, said Jane Howard, head of the Gilroy Visitors Bureau and a former Republican candidate for the 28th State Assembly District.
“I think he’s been a pretty good governor and he understands that you don’t raise taxes to raise revenue at the state level,” Howard said. “He’s got strong experience with immigration, and I think he seems more of a moderate Democratic.”
Richardson, who received only 3 percent support among California Democrats in the latest Field Poll, is a distant fourth to Clinton, Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who received 10 percent support in the polls.
But in an unusually long campaign season, front-runners could change as advertising dollars pour into California, according to Terry Christensen, a political science professor at San Jose State University. The governor has shifted the state’s primary elections from June to Feb. 5, as part of a nationwide game of electoral leap-frog. State after state this year is scheduling primaries earlier in hopes of luring millions of dollars in advertising revenues and emerging as a barometer for the national election.
“The early primary raises California’s profile nationally and shifts attention to issues of special concern in California – especially the environment but also health care, the economy, the war and immigration,” Christensen said, explaining that absentee ballots will be mailed to California voters on or about Jan. 10.
“That means our primary really begins even earlier than most people think – which gives further advantage to candidates who have the money to reach voters early and often,” he said. “It also means many California voters may cast their ballots before the New Hampshire and other early primaries – thus lessening their influence.”
But South County political observers don’t necessarily see the virtue in an early primary.
“We have so many debates now, candidates are spending more time developing sound bites instead of policy positions, and we’re wearing people out,” said Carr.
“I don’t think it’s healthy at all to have all these early primaries,” Howard agreed. “You have your candidates selected six, seven, eight months before the election. There’s too much that can occur and you get voter fatigue. Who wants to listen to that for eight months?
While San Benito County residents mirror much of what their partisan colleagues in Santa Clara are saying, and while the comings, goings and gaffes of the nation’s presidential candidates top the headlines regularly, many locals say it’s too early to pick a favorite.
San Benito County resident John Rinck said he hasn’t paid close attention to the races yet because they don’t tend to “shake out” until February of election year. Rinck isn’t rooting for any candidates yet. But when he starts following the race, he said he’ll definitely scrutinize everyone’s stance on “the number one issue” – the war in Iraq.
“No one seems to want to say what they would do (in Iraq),” Rinck said. “But they’re going to have to, and that’s when things get interesting.”
Rinck is a registered Republican, but like many locals, he insisted that his party identification doesn’t determine his vote.
“It certainly didn’t in the last two elections,” Rinck said. “I think (Bush) is one of the most corrupt presidents ever.”
Even Marvin Jones, chairman of the San Benito County Republican Central Committee, said he isn’t completely happy with President Bush’s performance. Jones applauded Bush’s willingness to cut taxes, but he complained that both the president and the Republican Congress “blew it” by spending too much money on social programs.
Jones said he’s looking for a candidate who is “fiscally responsible” and committed to “more freedom for individuals.” So has he found that in the current Republican field?
“Well, what looks like the most unfavorable Republican is still better than the most conservative Democratic,” Jones said.
Not everyone was as coy about picking out a candidate. Local architect David Huboi made his political persuasion – and his top choice – pretty clear when describing his reading list. Huboi, who is also co-chairing the Yes-on-Measure-T campaign, a proposal for a 1 percent sales tax hike in Hollister, reported that he just finished reading Barack Obama’s “The Audacity of Hope” and is starting Al Gore’s “The Assault on Reason.”
Obama is a strong candidate because his commitment to “basic humanitarian values” can unite voters of different political persuasions, Huboi said.
“It’s very plain and very simple, but we need to be reminded that this is how we’ve been able to endure and how we’ll be able to progress,” Huboi said.
Huboi is so committed to the cause that he won’t just be voting for Obama in the Democratic primary. He also plans to “do whatever I can to help him get elected.”
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Hollister Mayor Brad Pike said he’s looking for a candidate with “leadership.” Pike, a Republican, has been examining the options in his party.
“I’m still looking for someone to fill that role,” he said.
Free Lance staff writer Anthony Ha contributed to this report.
