There’s been a lot of whining this spring from Democrats
– mostly supporters of Democratic nominee Phil Angelides – about
how a hotly contested Democratic primary election would play into
the hands of Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
That did not deter Steve Westly, the state controller, from
spending more than $35 million of his own money in an unsuccessful
attempt to wrest the Democratic nomination from Angelides, who
started campaigning as the
”
anti
–Arnold
”
almost from the day Schwarzenegger became governor.
Ironically, and despite the sentiments of Democrats who thought
it dirty and destructive, Westly’s effort could end up helping
Angelides.
There’s been a lot of whining this spring from Democrats – mostly supporters of Democratic nominee Phil Angelides – about how a hotly contested Democratic primary election would play into the hands of Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
That did not deter Steve Westly, the state controller, from spending more than $35 million of his own money in an unsuccessful attempt to wrest the Democratic nomination from Angelides, who started campaigning as the “anti–Arnold” almost from the day Schwarzenegger became governor.
Ironically, and despite the sentiments of Democrats who thought it dirty and destructive, Westly’s effort could end up helping Angelides.
The entire question parallels the age–old debate over whether a baseball team fresh from a tight pennant race will do better in the playoffs than a club that eases into the postseason by a wide margin, resting its top players and setting its pitching rotation just so.
Plainly, California Republicans buy the notion that uncontested races are better for them than competition. Not only did Schwarzenegger have no significant opponent this spring, but five of the seven other major statewide Republican nominees also had no real contests.
This allowed them to hoard campaign money for the November runoffs, even though most will nevertheless go back again to the same donors who helped fatten their war chests before the primary.
Meanwhile, Democrats had tough contests for virtually every one of their slots.
As in baseball, it’s impossible to say with certainty which approach to the playoffs/runoffs works better.
Take the last contested Democratic campaign for governor, which occurred when three major figures each spent at least $10 million during the primary season, their total spending topping $65 million. That happened in 1998, when Northwest Airlines owner Al Checchi plopped $40 million into the race, Congresswoman Jane Harman spent $16 million and eventual winner Gray Davis raised and spent $9 million.
Despite spending the least, Davis won the primary handily and somehow managed to raise another $30 million before the runoff.
Meanwhile, former two–term Attorney General Dan Lungren had no opposition on the Republican side, spent virtually nothing on the primary and enjoyed early poll leads over all the Democrats. But when November rolled around, he lost by a wide margin.
On the other hand, when Republicans had a contested primary in 2002, with financier Bill Simon beating out former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, Democrat Davis was reelected easily.
But when Democrats put only one significant figure (Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante) into the replacement candidate pool for the 2003 recall election, they virtually guaranteed both a plurality and a victory for Schwarzenegger.
So recent history indicates the eventual outcome has little to do with how ferociously a primary is contested.
And for Angelides there may be some advantages to having weathered a tough campaign. There’s the fact that he faced down charges of environmental depredation in his earlier days as a Sacramento–area developer, claims that proved to have no legs despite tens of millions of dollars worth of commercials touting them. If those charges arise again this fall, Angelides should know how to defuse them, unless the Schwarzenegger camp can dredge up new allegations with more substance.
And there’s the fact that he fought his way through multiple debates against a plain–talking opponent who pulled few punches. Westly charged Angelides with everything from ignorance of immigration issues to loving tax increases – a claim Schwarzenegger will surely repeat.
Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger has yet to engage in a one–on–one debate with any opponent, ever. When he ran in the 2003 recall election, the governor deigned to appear at only one of the many candidate debates, picking one that included half a dozen figures whose sheer numbers guaranteed there would be no direct confrontations over issues of substance.
No one knows how the governor will do when he has to face tough and direct questions from a skilled and experienced opponent who may not allow him to deflect them with platitudes. That’s what Angelides swears he’ll do.
“I guarantee you I won’t agree to debates where he gets the questions in advance, like the one phony debate he participated in during the recall,” Angelides said.
Schwarzenegger avoided confrontations with critics through much of his time in office, only recently changing his practice of pre–screening audiences for “town hall” question–and–answer sessions and still refusing to be interviewed one–on–one by his most persistent journalistic critics.
The bottom line: The fact that Schwarzenegger had no primary opposition while Westly and Angelides were beating up on each other guarantees the incumbent nothing. He will now have to prove he can withstand the same kind of vicious one–on–one battle Angelides just won.
